Probabilistic capacity assessment of RC half-joints using Monte Carlo simulation and strut-and-tie modeling

Existing reinforced concrete half-joints are susceptible to deterioration and brittle failure, yet current deterministic assessment methods neglect critical uncertainties in material properties, loading, and resistance modeling. This study presents a probabilistic framework combining Strut-and-Tie Models (STM) with Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) to assess half-joint capacity. Four STM configurations (A, B, AB, and C) representing distinct load-transfer mechanisms were evaluated. Probabilistic analysis incorporated uncertainties in concrete strength, steel yield strength, applied loads, and model assumptions. Results identify STM AB as providing the most reliable capacity prediction. The integrated STM-MCS framework offers a practical tool for assessing existing half-joints, enabling engineers to quantify capacity while accounting for inherent variabilities.