Climate change effects on the structural reliability of reinforced concrete building in Veneto region

Climate change is expected to accelerate the deterioration of reinforced concrete infrastructure, particularly in regions such as the Mediterranean that are experiencing temperature increases above the global average. This study investigates the impact of future climate conditions on the durability of reinforced concrete structures in the Veneto region of Italy, focusing on one primary deterioration mechanisms, i.e., carbonation and chloride ingress. Using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 to represent different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, climate data for temperature and atmospheric CO₂ concentration were integrated into deterioration models. A simply supported bridge section was modelled as a representative structural typology for regional bridges. Probabilistic simulations are conducted, incorporating uncertainties in environmental parameters. Finally, results were mapped to visualize spatial variations in vulnerability across the region. The findings show that as climate conditions worsen, carbonation and chloride ingress rates will increase, leading to a significant reduction in service life.