Surrogate Model-Based Seismic Vulnerability Analysis of Historic Masonry Buildings: A Novel Approach Incorporating Material Parameter Uncertainties

Historic masonry buildings, as crucial cultural heritage, have experienced significant deterioration in their structural safety performance due to prolonged exposure to both natural and anthropogenic factors throughout their service life. Recent seismic events have demonstrated that numerous historic masonry buildings suffer severe damage or collapse during earthquakes, primarily due to insufficient seismic assessment and inadequate reinforcement measures. Therefore, conducting comprehensive seismic performance evaluations of these structures is imperative. This study proposes a novel vulnerability analysis method for masonry cultural heritage based on surrogate models, incorporating the uncertainties of masonry material parameters. The proposed methodology is validated through its application to a masonry cultural heritage alongside a comparative analysis using traditional three-dimensional finite element modeling approaches. Results demonstrate that the surrogate model-based approach not only effectively accounts for the impact of material parameter uncertainties on structural seismic response but also significantly reduces computational time while maintaining analytical accuracy. In contrast, conventional vulnerability analysis methods prove time-intensive, particularly when incorporating material uncertainties, leading to substantially decreased computational efficiency. Consequently, the proposed uncertainty-aware vulnerability analysis method demonstrates superior analytical efficiency and provides practical value for rapid and accurate seismic assessment of historic masonry buildings.