University Careers and Their Determinants: A Study at the University of Padova

The aim of this paper is to identify the factors that determine university careers. Specifically, it refers to administrative data of students enrolled in first cycle degree courses at one of the largest Italian public institutions, namely the University of Padova, from the academic year 2016–2017 to the academic year 2023–2024, and considers the complexity of university careers, focusing not only on dropout, but also on course changes and delayed degree completion. The availability of continuous time data allows the use of Fine and Gray’s proportional subdistribution hazards regression model to estimate the marginal probability of dropout and degree completion, taking into account the nature of competing risks. The analyses, estimated separately for the four fields of study identified at the University of Padova, show that the variables influencing the risk of dropping out and of graduating act differently according to the field of study. Particularly interesting are the results on the change of degree programme which is important for preventing dropout but not sufficient to facilitate degree completion.