Assessment of bioenergy plant locations using a GIS-MCDA approach based on spatio-temporal stability maps of agricultural and livestock byproducts: A case study

Addressing the global challenge of energy sustainability and global directives on farming emissions, the United Nations, the European Union, and China have led with strict targets for clean energy, renewable share growth, and carbon neutrality, highlighting a commitment to collective sustainability. This work is situated within the ambit of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), advocating for a transition towards renewable energy sources. With substantial and accessible bioenergy resources, notably in Hubei Province, China, biogas technology has emerged as an emission-cutting solution. This research, focused on the Jianghan Plain, employs an integrated approach combining spatial analyses with machine learning tools to evaluate crop yield stability over two decades, with the aim of maximising the biogas yield from agricultural byproducts, i.e., crop straw and livestock manure. Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), which is informed by grey-based DEMATEL, 9 constraints and 13 environmental, social, and economic criteria were assessed to identify optimal sites for biogas facilities. The findings underscore the significant bioenergy potential of agricultural byproducts from the plain of 6.3 × 1012 kJ/year at an 11.4 kJ/m2 density. Stability analyses revealed consistent biomass availability, with rice in Gongan and Shayang and wheat in Jiangling being the primary contributors. Through the MCDA, 45–66 optimal biogas plants were identified across 4 critical counties (Zhongxiang, Shangyang, Jingshan, and Yichen), balancing the energy supply and demand under various stable scenarios. Furthermore, this study demonstrated the criticality of moderate biomass stability for stakeholder consensus and identified areas of high stability essential for energy demand fulfilment. Theoretically, this study offers a practical model for bioenergy resource exploitation that aligns with global sustainability and carbon neutrality goals to address the urgent need for renewable energy solutions amidst the global energy crisis. Practically, this study sets a precedent for policy and planning in environmental, agricultural, and renewable sectors, signifying a step forwards in achieving environmental sustainability and an energy-efficient future.