The Course organizational structure as a determinant of academic success. Some evidences from Padova University

University drop-out is one of the major problems in Italian University. According to data of MIUR/CNVSU (2011), in 2008/09 only 60% of students had a regular career in tertiary first degree level of education and 18% of students withdraw from university after the first year. The percentage of drop-out was quite high before the University reform of 2001. Drop-out had a temporary small decrease after 2001 but, at present, the proportion of students who enter tertiary education without obtaining a first degree is still below OECD and EU19 average (OECD, 2010). In the literature some authors present studies that aim to detect the subjective factors of academic failure / success (see for example MIUR/CNVSU, 2010; Cingano and Cipollone, 2007). Furthermore, some studies analyse the data at most at the Faculty level or separately for 1st and 2nd cycle degree. In this contribution we present an analysis by cohort of students and by courses using data from the administrative archives of Padova University in a longitudinal perspective. The goal is to examine the influence of different organizational characteristics of the didactic paths on educational failure / success. We examine the trends of three specific phenomena: withdraw, change of course and delay, referring to five cohorts of students (2001/02-2005/06) enrolled in 84 undergraduates courses (ex D.M. 509/1999). We carry out the analysis in two steps. First of all we use Multiple-decrement life tables (Garcia, 1994) to describe, by means of survival rates and cumulative decrement rates, levels of withdraw, change of course and delay, to obtain a segmentation of the courses in homogenous groups. Then we analyse, by means of hierarchical regression models, the effects of context variables that, with personal characteristics, influence the different phenomena we are studying. In this way we can integrate in an interpretative frame the dimensions that affect withdraw, change and delay. According to the emerging typology we can propose specific intervention strategies to contrast academic failure.