Climate Warming and Ice Weakening Trigger Alpine Glacier Collapses: The Marmolada Case

The rapid retreat of temperate mid-latitude glaciers due to global warming causes dramatic mass loss and increases their instability. Using a synthesis of thermodynamic and mechanical laws, we constructed a three-dimensional stability model and applied it in the analysis of the collapse of a portion of the Marmolada Glacier in northeastern Italy that occurred on 3 July 2022. The analysis indicated that the glacier was in critical equilibrium because an increased englacial temperature acted synergistically with diffuse fractures near the rupture surfaces to reduce the ice shear strength. In addition, the increase in basal water pressure caused by meltwater rendered the glacier unstable even at higher shear strengths. As most Alpine glaciers are retreating under similar climatic conditions, we raise concerns about worsening hazard scenarios across mid-latitude mountain regions and emphasize the importance of predictive tools—such as that developed in this study—to support hazard mitigation efforts.