Drivers of Urban Expansion in Europe: A Literature Review of the Roles of Electoral Cycles and Climate Change

The urban population is growing worldwide; therefore, understanding the drivers of urban expansion is essential. To this end, this study conducts a systematic literature review followed by a thematic analysis, focusing on two main underlying drivers of urban expansion: climate change and electoral cycle. Results suggest that most papers focus on the effects rather than the drivers of urban development. When drivers are investigated, most studies look at factors influencing the demand for land (e.g. demographic and socioeconomic dynamics), while fewer analyses address supply-side factors and their underlying drivers, namely climate change and electoral cycle. Despite the limited literature, some insightful results emerge. Election proximity is associated with increases in visible urban expansion projects, aimed at increasing voter support for incumbents. Climate change also influences urban growth patterns through land use shifts linked to changes in agricultural productivity and adaptation efforts. Future research should explore these effects quantitatively, as existing studies mostly employ local-level case studies.