A parametric simulation of a spacecraft fragmentation: effect of mass, velocity, and impact point

Space debris pose a significant hazard in near-Earth orbits, as collisions between spacecraft and other objects can generate thousands of fragments, potentially leading to partial or total breakups. Understanding the fragmentation process and the formation of debris clouds is essential for assessing risks to both the orbital environment and operational assets. In particular, identifying key geometrical and collision parameters that influence spacecraft fragmentation can improve modelling of past and future breakup events, as well as the evaluation of their short- and long-term effects.To address these challenges, a parametric simulation of satellite fragmentation was conducted using a numerical code developed at the University of Padova. The study employed a representative model of an Earth-observation satellite inspired by the COSMO-SkyMed family, analysing its response to collisions in terms of fragments distributions. The key parameters investigated were impactor mass, velocity, and impact location. Three impactor types were considered: a small aluminium sphere, a 1U CubeSat, and a rocket stage. Two velocity scenarios (1 km/s and 10 km/s) were examined, along with various impact points, including direct collisions on the main body (upper, lower, and frontal faces) at 0 (normal impact) and 45 angles, as well as glancing impacts at different inclinations.A total of more than 30 simulations were performed, providing a comprehensive assessment of the spacecraft's response to varying impact conditions. As expected, fragmentation severity increased with impactor mass and velocity. However, results also revealed that, for the same impactor at the same velocity, the number of generated fragments could vary by orders of magnitude depending on the impact location, in particular for intermediate values of the Energy-to-Mass ratio (between 0.01 and 1 J/g).