Understanding Hydropower Generation Across Countries Through Innovation Diffusion Models

The world is increasingly confronted with interconnected challenges such as energy shortages and climate change. Fossil fuels, including coal, oil, and natural gas, remain the dominant global energy sources, yet they are major contributors to greenhouse gas emissions and growing geopolitical instability. In response to energy insecurity and environmental pressures, many countries are expanding their use of renewable energy sources, including hydropower, solar, wind, and geothermal. Hydropower currently generates more electricity than all other renewable technologies combined and is expected to remain the largest source of renewable electricity through the 2030s. This paper analyzes the role of hydropower in national energy transitions by applying innovation diffusion models. Using an innovation diffusion framework, via the Bass Model, we examine the dynamics of hydropower generation across multiple countries and find that this approach effectively captures the mean nonlinear trajectory of most countries. We complete the analysis by evaluating the effect of rainfall on hydropower generation and show that this helps capture the residual variability not modeled by the Bass Model.