Challenges and strategies for handling end-of-life lithiumion batteries in the EU with a circular economy perspective

This study focuses on lithium-ion batteries (LIB) for electric vehicles (EVs) and projecting the sales and lifespan of various battery technologies in the European Union up to 2040, as well as assessing opportunities for remanufacturing, reusing and the potential for critical raw materials (like Cobalt, Lithium and Nickel) recovery through recycling. The work leverages current sales data, market trends, and predictive tools such as the Weibull distribution to estimate battery lifespan according to different scenarios. Specifically, by 2030, the end-of-life batteries are projected to be between 2.45 and 3.71 million, increasing to 11.8 - 17.5 million by 2040. The remanufactured batteries could be between 261,000 and 552,000 by 2030, rising to 369,000 and 846,000 by 2040. In terms of second-life applications, 1.12 – 2.24 million batteries are expected by 2030, and 5.43–12.33 million by 2040. Furthermore, in 2030, the recycling of end-of-life batteries could recover between 1.16 and 1.26 kilotons of lithium, 8.63 and 12.6 kilotons of nickel, and 2.07 and 2.92 kilotons of cobalt, while in 2040 these values could rise to 5.94–7.53 kton for Lithium, 39.41–49.89 kton for Nickel and 8.17–9.94 kton for Cobalt. This research is particularly relevant for policymakers and automotive industry stakeholders, as it emphasizes the role of circular economy strategies in reducing reliance on virgin raw materials, supporting sustainability goals, and ensuring a stable supply of critical materials for the European EV market and other sectors, such as electronics and energy storage.