An accurate quantification study on the rooftop PV potential based UAV field photography in dense urban environments

An accurate and detailed estimation of rooftop photovoltaic (PV) installation potential is important for guiding rooftop PV deployment strategies, thereby accelerating progress toward carbon neutrality. The rooftop PV installation coefficient is a key parameter for estimating the rooftop installable PV areas. Existing methods typically estimate the rooftop PV installation coefficient by designing hypothetical layouts on rooftops without installed PV systems. However, such approaches may lead to discrepancies from the actual installation coefficients observed after installation. This study proposes a method for determining rooftop PV installation coefficients based on real-world data collected from a large number of buildings with existing PV installations. Unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) photography is employed to rapidly and comprehensively capture rooftop PV installation information, including the ratio of PV to rooftop area, building type, roof type, and installation method. PV installation data from 279 buildings across three cities in China have been collected and analyzed. Rooftop PV installation coefficients were derived for six building types, which can be applied to estimate the city-wide rooftop PV installation potential. Taking Wuhan central urban area as a case study, the PV installation potential of different functional zones and the average installation potential of individual buildings have been calculated. The results indicate that the rooftop PV installation coefficients for various building types in Wuhan range from 0.26 to 0.50, with an overall citywide average of 0.32. These values are significantly lower than those reported in most previous studies that did not incorporate actual installation data. The rooftop PV installation area potential in Wuhan central urban is estimated at 38 km2, with a maximum power generation potential of approximately 9308 GWh/year. Based on Wuhan's total electricity consumption in 2024, this could meet 18.9 % of the city's total electricity demand