Unemployment Benefits in the EU: The Commission's Approach

Unemployment insurance is a major component of European welfare regimes, whereby each EU member state has its own distinctive scheme. Despite falling under national competence, the European Commission has exercised pressure over this policy area since the establishment of the European Employment Strategy. In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, it stepped up its involvement through the European Semester, which went hand in hand with heightened domestic reform activity. This article aims to establish links between the two phenomena during 2011–2019, after which the conditionality embodied in the Commission's country-specific recommendations (CSRs) changed significantly. The analysis employs mixed methods. Qualitatively, the article focuses on EU Semester documents, interviews with policy-makers and case studies, including a deeper review of Italian reforms. Quantitatively, it includes frequency analyses of uniformly coded recommendations and reform events present in the Commission's CSR and LabRef databases and mixed linear regressions connecting the two. The findings indicate a marked socialisation pattern in the Semester's prescriptions, moving from labour market flexibility towards balanced social protection. CSRs were often tailored to national contexts, avoiding one-size-fits-all approaches. Moreover, the analysis highlights the Semester's influence on domestic policy, revealing a shift from pro-market to pro-labour reforms during the period.