Employment trajectories in early adulthood and later fertility

The association between employment and fertility is typically studied using single work episodes and transitions between parities, potentially overlooking the complexity of individual trajectories. In this study we examine whether the type of employment trajectories experienced in early adulthood – especially those related to a greater economic vulnerability – is associated with fertility in Italy. Specifically, we focus on cumulated fertility at age 30 (for generations born 1956–1971 and 1972–1986) and completed fertility at age 45 (for generations born 1972–1986). We apply sequence analysis to data from a national representative survey conducted by the National Institute of Statistics in 2016. We use optimal matching and cluster analysis to identify typologies of typical employment trajectories, which serve as key covariates in Poisson models predicting fertility at ages 30 and 45. Among older generations, men and women with prolonged education have fewer children by age 30 than those with other employment trajectories; however, this negative association disappear by age 45. Men with employment trajectories characterised by fixed-term contracts and work interruptions have lower completed fertility, whereas women who never worked have larger families at ages 30 and 45. The relevance of employment trajectories for fertility at age 30 is more pronounced among younger than among older cohorts: the trajectories characterised by unemployment/temporary job or self-employment are associated with higher fertility for women and lower fertility for men. Thus, employment trajectories in early adulthood can predict both timing and quantum of fertility in Italy