Is the Energy Transition of Housing Financially Viable? Unlocking the Potential of Deep Retrofits with New Business Models

The transition to energy-efficient buildings is a priority of the European EPBD (Energy Performance Building Directive) and requires deep retrofits to reduce consumption and emissions. However, their financial viability remains underexplored. This research assesses the financial feasibility of deep retrofit interventions through innovative business models, focusing on the Managed Energy Services Agreement (MESA), which is considered the most effective for residential buildings. Additionally, we integrate off-site production from the Energiesprong model, which optimizes costs and time through long-term contracts and industrialized retrofit technologies. The analysis targets two investment profiles—owner/tenant and developer/entrepreneur—in Italian urban contexts with different market dynamics. A static analysis evaluates retrofits based on existing costs and technologies, while a dynamic analysis considers future profitability improvements because of cost reductions enabled by off-site production. The results indicate that, under current conditions, residential retrofitting is not financially sustainable without public subsidies. However, cost reductions driven by off-site technologies improve profitability, making large-scale retrofits feasible. Moreover, real estate market characteristics affect financial sustainability: in smaller cities, deeper cost reductions are necessary for retrofit interventions to become viable.