Rainfall‐Runoff Modeling in Rocky Headwater Catchments for the Prediction of Debris Flow Occurrence

In the Dolomites, steep rocky cliffs are marked by numerous narrow gullies. When high-intensity short-duration precipitation occurs, these gullies concentrate and direct surface runoff to the screes at the foot of rock cliffs. Surface runoff mixes with loose sediments, creating a solid-liquid surge that, as it moves downhill, increases its volume entraining debris material and transforms into a granular debris flow. Given the ongoing challenge of modeling the relationship between intense rainfall, surface runoff, and debris flow initiation, we take advantage of data from three monitoring stations operating in distinct debris flow active catchments in our study area to make progress. These stations, strategically positioned close to debris flows initiation zones, record videos and different types of flow-stage data, helping us pinpoint the timing and form of incoming discharge hydrographs. Over a 15-year period of observation, we collected a comprehensive data set on runoff and mass mov...