White Matter Tract Density Index Prediction Model of Overall Survival in Glioblastoma

IMPORTANCE The prognosis of overall survival (OS) in patients with glioblastoma (GBM) may depend on the underlying structural connectivity of the brain.OBJECTIVE To examine the association between white matter tracts affected by GBM and patients' OS by means of a new tract density index (TDI).DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This prognostic study in patients with a histopathologic diagnosis of GBM examined a discovery cohort of 112 patients who underwent surgery between February 1, 2015, and November 30, 2020 (follow-up to May 31, 2023), in Italy and 70 patients in a replicative cohort (n = 70) who underwent surgery between September 1, 2012, and November 30, 2015 (follow-up to May 31, 2023), in Germany. Statistical analyses were performed from June 1, 2021, toMay 31, 2023. Thirteen and 12 patients were excluded from the discovery and the replicative sets, respectively, because of magnetic resonance imaging artifacts. EXPOSURE The density of white matter tracts encompassing GBM.MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Correlation, linear regression, Cox proportional hazards regression, Kaplan-Meier, and prediction analysis were used to assess the association between the TDI and OS. Results were compared with common prognostic factors of GBM, including age, performance status, O6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase methylation, and extent of surgery. RESULTS In the discovery cohort (n = 99; mean [SD] age, 62.2 [11.5] years; 29 female [29.3%]; 70 male [70.7%]), the TDI was significantly correlated with OS (r = -0.34; P <.001). This association was more stable compared with other prognostic factors. The TDI showed a significant regression pattern (Cox: hazard ratio, 0.28 [95% CI, 0.02-0.55; P =.04]; linear: t = -2.366; P =.02). and a significant Kaplan-Meier stratification of patients as having lower or higher OS based on the TDI (log-rank test = 4.52; P =.03). Results were confirmed in the replicative cohort (n = 58; mean [SD] age, 58.5 [11.1] years, 14 female [24.1%]; 44 male [75.9%]). High (24-month cutoff) and low (18-month cutoff) OS was predicted based on the TDI computed in the discovery cohort (accuracy = 87%).CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this study, GBMs encompassing regions with low white matter tract density were associated with longer OS. These findings indicate that the TDI is a reliable presurgical outcome predictor that may be considered in clinical trials and clinical practice. These findings support a framework in which the outcome of GBM depends on the patient's brain organization.