Agent-based modelling of reactive vaccination of workplaces and schools against COVID-19

The authors use an agent-based model to investigate the potential of reactive vaccination strategies for COVID-19 outbreak mitigation. They find that distributing vaccines in schools and workplaces where cases are detected is more impactful than non-reactive strategies in a wide range of epidemic scenarios.With vaccination against COVID-19 stalled in some countries, increasing vaccine accessibility and distribution could help keep transmission under control. Here, we study the impact of reactive vaccination targeting schools and workplaces where cases are detected, with an agent-based model accounting for COVID-19 natural history, vaccine characteristics, demographics, behavioural changes and social distancing. In most scenarios, reactive vaccination leads to a higher reduction in cases compared with non-reactive strategies using the same number of doses. The reactive strategy could however be less effective than a moderate/high pace mass vaccination program if initial vaccination coverage is high or disease incidence is low, because few people would be vaccinated around each case. In case of flare-ups, reactive vaccination could better mitigate spread if it is implemented quickly, is supported by enhanced test-trace-isolate and triggers an increased vaccine uptake. These results provide key information to plan an adaptive vaccination rollout.