The role of gas on future perspectives of renewable energy diffusion: Bridging technology or lock-in?

Background: After the COVID-19 pandemic will be brought under control through mass vaccination, the challenge of global climate change and related energy transition will return on top of policy agendas. Objectives: To assess the perspectives of renewable energy technologies as a critical component of the energy transition, by investigating trends of wind and solar energies and their competitive strength in energy markets. In particular, to clarify the critical issue of the future role of gas in the competition i.e., whether it might play the role of a bridging technology or a lock-in. Methods/Analysis: Diffusion models in a competing setting were used in 12 selected countries to analyze the dynamic relationship between renewables and natural gas, taken as critical prospective competitor. Findings: With only one notable exception, in the analyzed countries renewables appear to exert a strongly competitive effect on gas, while gas is found to have either a competitive and collaborative role towards renewables. Novelty/Improvement: The dynamic relationship between renewables and natural gas is investigated with a multivariate diffusion model, allowing to capture some key regularities with high interpretability. The results are then contextualized with each country’s specific energy history.