Performance permutation analysis of Equality, Convergence and their Combination under the Delphi Method

This paper describes some of the results of the research conducted by the Delphi method on the family tomorrow. Some hypotheses of future scenarios useful to understand today and to equip themselves for tomorrow are evaluated by a selected group of experts. From the focus group material, 41 items were identified, divided into 7 sections corresponding to different thematic areas concerning the family. (Parents, spouses, extended family, children, housing, family models, politics and services, communication, solidarity). The research was carried out in four successive surveys, the first through a face-to-face interview to 32 experts selected according to criteria of expertise on the theme of the family. The subsequent ones using a CAWI method (Computer Assisted Web Based Interview) based on the online self-compilation of a computerized questionnaire, for which the LimeSurvey software was used (www.limesurvey.org). Respondents were asked to provide two assessments: the "Evolution" and "Relevance" i of each items. In order to evaluate the relative importance of the various items, the Global Rank approach based on compound indicators was used. This approach allows to evaluate not only the relative importance of the various items in the construction of future scenarios on the family but also the robustness of the results with respect to the particular calculation algorithm used and on which there is no agreement in the literature. An aspect analyzed with great care is that of the different weights to be attributed to the various experts on the basis of their self-assessment about the knowledge of the item.