Diagnostic accuracy of markers for prodromal Alzheimer's disease in independent clinical series

Objective: To capitalize on data from different clinical series to compare sensitivity and specificity of individual biomarkers for predicting mild cognitive impairment (MCI) progression to Alzheimer's disease (AD). Methods: Medial temporal atrophy, cortical hypometabolism, and cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers were assessed in 18 patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) with prodromal AD (pAD; conversion time, 26 ± 12 months) and 18 stable MCI (sMCI) patients from the Translational Outpatient Memory Clinic cohort, as well as in 24 pAD patients (conversion time, 36 ± 12 months) and 33 sMCI patients from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative cohort. Medial temporal atrophy was measured by manual, semi-automated, and automated hippocampal volumetry; cortical hypometabolism was measured using several indices of AD-related hypometabolism pattern; and cerebrospinal fluid markers were amyloid β (Aβ)42 and total tau protein concentrations. For each biomarker, sensitivity for pAD, specificity for sMCI, and diagnostic accuracy were computed. Results: Sensitivity to predict MCI conversion to AD in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative and Translational Outpatient Memory Clinic cohorts was 79% and 94% based on Aβ42, 46% and 28% based on hippocampal volumes, 33% to 66% and 56% to 78% based on different hypometabolism indices, and 46% and 61% based on total tau levels, respectively. Specificity to exclude sMCI was 27% and 50% based on Aβ42, 76% and 94% based on hippocampal volumes, 58% to 67% and 55% to 83% based on different hypometabolism indices, and 61% and 83% based on total tau levels, respectively. Conclusions: Current findings suggest that Aβ42 concentrations and hippocampal volumes may be used in combination to best identify pAD. © 2013 The Alzheimer's Association. All rights reserved.