Optimising European supply chains for carbon capture, transport and sequestration, including uncertainty on geological storage availability

Carbon capture and storage is considered a key option for decarbonising the energy sector. However, both the necessity of deploying large-scale infrastructures between the nodes of production and sequestration of CO2, and the uncertainty related to the effective storage availability of sequestration basins still represent major challenges. Here, a mixed integer linear programming approach is proposed for the optimisation of a European supply chain model for carbon capture, transport, and storage. A quantitative assessment of storage uncertainty is incorporated to represent the volumetric capacity of basins to date considered capable of efficiently trapping the anthropogenic CO2 emissions (i.e., deep saline aquifers, hydrocarbon fields and coal fields). The objective is to minimise the total expected cost required to install and operate, over a 10 years’ time horizon, the overall network for carbon capture, transport and storage, while also taking into account the financial risk that is generated by uncertainty in geological capacity. The model defines economically optimal European supply chains, whilst simultaneously minimising the financial risk generated by uncertainty in local sequestration availability to ensure a robust design.