Freeway rear-end collision risk estimation with extreme value theory approach. A case study

The current practice in crash-based safety analysis is hindered by some weaknesses: rarity of crashes, lack of timeliness, mistakes in crash reporting. Researchers are testing alternative approaches to safety estimation without the need of crash data. This paper presents an application of Extreme Value Theory in road safety analysis, using Time-To-Collision as a surrogate safety measure to estimate the risk to be involved in a freeway rear-end collision. The method was tested using data from an Italian toll-road with good results.