Modeling the long-term planform evolution of meandering rivers in confined alluvial valleys: Etsch-Adige River, NE Italy

We combine the use of a morphodynamic model for river meander planform evolution with a geological dataset to investigate the influence of external confinements on the long-term evolution of a meandering river flowing in an Alpine valley. The analysis focuses on a 100 km reach of the Adige River, NE Italy, which had several sinuous/meandering sections before being extensively channelized in the 1800s. Geological surveys and historical maps revealed that many sections of the study reach impinge on the borders of the valley during its evolution. Moreover, a marked spatial heterogeneity in floodplain vertical accretion rates likely reflects preferential positions of the river channel in the floodplain. Valley confinements are represented by bedrock outcrops and by alluvial fans created by lateral tributaries, and were extracted from the geological and historical maps to build the computational domain for the meander morphodynamic model. The model predicts the long-term planform evolution of a meandering river based on a linear solution of the 2D De St Venant-Exner differential system and can manage changes in floodplain erodibility. Model applications allow to isolate the effects of valley bedrock and of alluvial fans in constraining the lateral channel migration. Modeled river channel persistence maps are compared with the available geological information. The present work allows further insights into the role of external confinements to river meander belts, which have been conducted so far mostly assuming the channel to evolve in unconfined floodplains. Future research shall incorporate model components for floodplain vertical accretion rates and for the advancement of alluvial fans occurring at the same time scale considered for meander evolution.