The year 2012 registered a decline of nuclear power consumption in several countries such as the US, France, Germany, and other OECD members. Was it a post-Fukushima outcome? We focus on the nuclear consumption leaders – the US, France and Germany – and explore, through diffusion models, whether and to what extent Fukushima had an effect on their consumption dynamics. In particular, we compare the evolutionary behavior estimated with the entire time series and that obtained by excluding the last two observations (2011 and 2012): how would the forecasts have been before Fukushima? The results show that nuclear energy policy of these countries does not seem to be affected by the accident: nuclear technology is being dismissed with different speeds and timing due to rising costs in risk management and possible shortages in Uranium 235 supply.
Are there any effects of Fukushima accident on the diffusion of nuclear energy?
FURLAN, CLAUDIA;GUIDOLIN, MARIANGELA;GUSEO, RENATO
2014
Abstract
The year 2012 registered a decline of nuclear power consumption in several countries such as the US, France, Germany, and other OECD members. Was it a post-Fukushima outcome? We focus on the nuclear consumption leaders – the US, France and Germany – and explore, through diffusion models, whether and to what extent Fukushima had an effect on their consumption dynamics. In particular, we compare the evolutionary behavior estimated with the entire time series and that obtained by excluding the last two observations (2011 and 2012): how would the forecasts have been before Fukushima? The results show that nuclear energy policy of these countries does not seem to be affected by the accident: nuclear technology is being dismissed with different speeds and timing due to rising costs in risk management and possible shortages in Uranium 235 supply.
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