Streamflow variability and optimal capacity of run-of-river hydropower plants

The identification of the capacity of a run-of-river plant which allows for the optimal utilization of the available water resources is a challenging task, mainly because of the inherent temporal variability of river flows. This paper proposes an analytical framework to describe the energy production and the economic profitability of small run-of-river power plants on the basis of the underlying streamflow regime. We provide analytical expressions for the capacity which maximize the produced energy as a function of the underlying flow duration curve and minimum environmental flow requirements downstream of the plant intake. Similar analytical expressions are derived for the capacity which maximize the economic return deriving from construction and operation of a new plant. The analytical approach is applied to a minihydro plant recently proposed in a small Alpine catchment in northeastern Italy, evidencing the potential of the method as a flexible and simple design tool for practical application. The analytical model provides useful insight on the major hydrologic and economic controls (e.g., streamflow variability, energy price, costs) on the optimal plant capacity and helps in identifying policy strategies to reduce the current gap between the economic and energy optimizations of run-of-river plants.