Il mercato alla produzione della carne cunicola: un'analisi interpretativa e previsionale dei prezzi

The rabbit meat production price is really stable in the long run, even it is affected by great instability in the short period. From the demand side, per capita consumptions are seasonal, increasing in winter and during Eastern holydays. From the supply side, prices are influenced by both the production-cycle length and the other meats market shocks. As a consequence, cyclical effects on prices may create price instability, mainly affecting expected seasonality, with relevant income-effects on producers. The 1990-99 monthly price series has been modelled by a RegARIMA model-based approach for forecasting purposes, taking into account the Eastern effect as a moving-holyday and the BSE factor affecting the rabbit price. The forecasting efficiency of the model has been successfully tested from a statistical and economic point of view. The series has been decomposed into its unobservable components that have been modelled.