Climate and land use changes, biodiversity and agri-environmental measures in the Belluno province, Italy

This paper presents a synthesis of the results of the ACCELERATES project (Assessing Climate Change Effects on Land Use and Ecosystems from Regional Analysis to the European Scale), obtained in the case study of the Belluno province (north-east Italy), a context chosen as representative of the Alpine area. Selected results of the analysis of the relationships between future scenarios of change, farming systems, land use and biodiversity are presented. An initial historical analysis of the dynamics of land use with respect to the agricultural, socio-economic and demographic dynamics identified the main drivers of change and the positive and negative factors for conservation of the rural land and of biodiversity. In a subsequent stage the scenarios of future climate and land use changes were used to analyse the future for the species selected as indicators of biodiversity in the studied area. The results obtained provided useful information for the identification of suitable agri-environmental policies at the local scale. Maintenance of the livestock production systems typical of mountain agriculture is shown to be the key factor for contrasting land abandonment and the consequent expansion of woodlands, with negative effects in terms of simplification of landscape and impacts on species of naturalistic interest.