Accomplishments and new challenges in dairy genetic evaluations

This review presents the evolution of dairy genetic methods to estimate breeding values. For centuries, human action has shaped animal populations by choosing progenitors of the next generation. Since the twentieth century, applied concepts were integrated into a new discipline, quantitative genetics. The past quarter-century in genetic evaluation of dairy cattle has been marked by evolution in methodology and computer capacity, expansion in the array of evaluated traits, and globalization. Selection index was replaced by mixed model procedures and animal models replaced by sire and sire-maternal grandsire models. Recently, application of Bayesian theory to breeding values prediction and variance components estimation has become standard. Individual test-day observations have been used more effectively in the estimation of lactation yield as direct input to evaluation models. Computer speed and storage are less limiting in choosing procedures. National evaluations combined internationally provide evaluations for bulls from all participating countries on each of the national scales, facilitating choices from among many more bulls. Selection within countries has increased inbreeding and the use of similar genetics across countries reduces the previously available genetic diversity. Finally, considerable progress in genomics has created a new tool, genomic selection. The collection and analysis of several types of phenotypic data to evaluate genetic merit will continue to be the most important tool for genetic progress in the foreseeable future. Information will increasingly be obtained from smaller reference populations and the extrapolation from these data will require careful validation.