Impact of uncertainty on the porous media description in the subsurface transport analysis

In the modelling of flow and transport phenomena in naturally heterogeneous media, the spatial variability of hydraulic properties, typically the hydraulic conductivity, is generally described by use of a variogram of constant sill and spatial correlation. While some analyses reported in the literature discuss of spatial inhomogeneity related to a trend in the mean hydraulic conductivity, the effect in the flow and transport due to an inexact definition of spatial statistical properties of media as far as we know had never taken into account. The relevance of this topic is manifest, and it is related to the uncertainty in the definition of spatial moments of hydraulic log-conductivity from an (usually) little number of data, as well as to the modelling of flow and transport processes by the Monte Carlo technique, whose numerical fields have poor ergodic properties and are not strictly statistically homogeneous. In this work we investigate the effects related to mean log-conductivity (logK) field behaviours different from the constant one due to different sources of inhomogeneity as: i) a deterministic trend; ii) a deterministic sinusoidal pattern and iii) a random behaviour deriving from the hierarchical sedimentary architecture of porous formations and iv) conditioning procedure on available measurements of the hydraulic conductivity. These mean log-conductivity behaviours are superimposed to a correlated weakly fluctuating logK field. The time evolution of the spatial moments of the plume driven by a statistically inhomogeneous steady state random velocity field is analyzed in a 2-D finite domain by taking into account different sizes of injection area. The problem is approached by both a classical Monte Carlo procedure and SFEM (stochastic finite element method). By the latter the moments are achieved by space-time integration of the velocity field covariance structure derived according to the first-order Taylor series expansion. Two different goals are foreseen: 1) from the results it will be possible to distinguish the contribute in the plume dispersion of the uncertainty in the statistics of the medium hydraulic properties in all the cases considered, and 2) we will try to highlight the loss of performances that seems to affect the first-order approaches in the transport phenomena that take place in hierarchical architecture of porous formations.