A geostatistical simulation approach to a pollution case in Northeastern Italy

The study zone is located in the city of Padova (the Veneto region, NE Italy). The industrial activities present in this area since 1950 have produced very high concentrations of Pb, Zn, Cu, Pcb and oils until a depth of 7m. The unsaturated and the saturated zones are both polluted. Because of the abundance of Pb values it was decided to analyze the lead distribution in the studied zone. In many studies of the polluted sites, the geometry of the investigated volume is highly anisotropic. Generally we have an extension of some hectares in the horizontal plane and of a few meters in depth. It is likely that different horizontal spatial continuity structures in pollution distribution are found at different depths both for the layered nature of the medium and for the transition between unsaturated and saturated conditions. In such conditions the decision to divide a 3D problem into 1D and 2D problems can be useful. Initially the studied volume was divided into seven layers up to 5m in depth; the study was then approached in two phases. First, the Pb values in the vertical direction were analyzed, considering a derive along z, and estimating the values using the Kriging with Trend (KT) method. Thus it was possible to increase the data in the z direction, especially in the deeper layers. Second, 500 realizations of the Pb distribution for each of the seven layers were simulated using the simulated annealing procedure. Finally, results were presented and discussed for each layer in terms of median and probability maps