High Temperatures, Extreme Weather Events, and Fertility in Italy: A Municipal-level Event-Based Analysis

This paper investigates the short-term effects of exceptional climatic episodes on fertility in Italy, distinguishing between extreme monthly average temperatures (measured using Copernicus data) and severe weather events recorded in the European Severe Weather Database (ESWD). We construct a novel municipality-level dataset covering the 2003-2023 period, integrating fertility data with information on climate shocks. To account for the non-random spatial and temporal distribution of climate shocks, we employ an event-study framework combined with propensity score matching, controlling for pre-treatment fertility dynamics and municipality-specific characteristics. The biological lag between conception and birth provides a natural over-identification test, enhancing causal interpretation. Our results show that, once treated municipalities are matched with comparable controls, the estimated effects of both high temperatures and extreme weather events on fertility are small and statistically insignificant. These findings underscore the importance of addressing seasonal confounding in panel analyses and introduce the ESWD into demographic research, enabling the study of short-term demographic responses to extreme climatic events.